026. Ned’s Predicted Emotional Curve at RWC2015

Right. Now we’re getting somewhere.

I do not just prefer New Zealand to win a little bit, but by about a bazillion bits. It’s not New Zealand = 20 joy points, and Japan = 19 joy points and so on.  It’s not linear. It’s exponential.

Again, we could spend a whole lot of pointless effort on specious precision. So let’s just go with a square progression.

 

Rank

Team

Joy

1

New Zealand 524,288

2

Japan

262,144

3

Tonga

131,072

4

Samoa

65,536

5

Fiji

32,768

6

Georgia

16,384

7 Uruguay

8,192

8

Namibia 4,096
9 Russia

2,048

10

Argentina 1,024

11

Ireland

512

12 South Africa

256

13

Wales

128

14

Italy

64

15

France 32
16 USA

16

17

Scotland 8
18 Canada

4

19

England 2
20 Australia

1

 

That feels about right: I prefer New Zealand over Australia by a ratio of 524,288 to 1.

Now that I know what my heart wants (alright, alright, MrsDavy is a jazillion gazillion joy points all by herself, let’s take that as read, move on already), all I need to do is see what my head thinks will actually happen.

And then we can do a bit of spreadsheeting to see how much pain or joy I’m in for over the next eight weeks.

(I’m just going to do this for the 40 pool matches at the moment, because too much predicting of the knockout stages is super bad juju.)

So here are my heart wishes and head predictions for each pool match.

 

 

Match Heart

Head

1 Japan vs Russia Japan Japan
2 Australia vs Fiji Fiji Australia
3 France vs Argentina Argentina Argentina
4 New Zealand vs South Africa New Zealand New Zealand
5 Italy vs Namibia Namibia Italy
6 Ireland vs Scotland Ireland Ireland
7 England vs Tonga Tonga England
8 Wales vs Georgia Georgia Wales
9 Russia vs Samoa Samoa Samoa
10 Fiji vs Uruguay Fiji Fiji
11 Italy vs Canada Italy Italy
12 England vs USA USA England
13 Argentina vs Tonga Tonga Argentina
14 Japan vs Ireland Japan Ireland
15 South Africa vs Namibia Namibia South Africa
16 Georgia vs Uruguay Georgia Georgia
17 Australia vs Wales Wales Wales
18 Scotland vs Samoa Samoa Scotland
19 France vs USA France France
20 New Zealand vs Canada New Zealand New Zealand
21 Georgia vs Fiji Fiji Fiji
22 Ireland vs Russia Russia Ireland
23 South Africa vs Italy South Africa South Africa
24 Australia vs Uruguay Uruguay Australia
25 England vs Argentina Argentina England
26 Japan vs Samoa Japan Japan
27 New Zealand vs Namibia New Zealand New Zealand
28 France vs Tonga Tonga France
29 South Africa vs Canada South Africa South Africa
30 Argentina vs USA Argentina Argentina
31 Scotland vs Russia Russia Scotland
32 Wales vs Fiji Fiji Wales
33 Australia vs Georgia Georgia Australia
34 New Zealand vs Italy New Zealand New Zealand
35 England vs France France England
36 Ireland vs Samoa Samoa Ireland
37 Namibia vs Canada Namibia Namibia
38 USA vs Tonga Tonga Tonga
39 Wales vs Uruguay Uruguay Wales
40 Japan vs Scotland Japan Japan

 

Tomorrow: I’ll cook up some numbers in the secret sauce, and produce a chart of my predicted emotional condition through the Cup.

Exciting, eh? Cliff hanger.

2 thoughts on “026. Ned’s Predicted Emotional Curve at RWC2015

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